With Black Friday and Cyber Monday (or BFCM as we abbreviate it) approaching, e-commerce marketers are under immense pressure. Get the strategy right, and you dominate the holiday season. Miss the mark, and your competitors will leave you behind. With global e-commerce sales projected to grow in the trillions of dollars, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
We recently had a conversation with Raphaël Vaillancourt, the performance and data specialist at mint. numérique, a digital performance agency based in Quebec. We discussed how they prepare for BFCM. In this open discussion, Raphaël shared the strategies that help clients succeed every November along with valuable insights that any agency or e-commerce brand can benefit from.
Raphaël Vaillancourt
Performance and data specialist
mint. numérique
Event analysis gives you future-winning insights
Every BFCM is a learning opportunity, and mint. numérique. approaches it like a scientist at the end of an experiment – by analyzing every detail.
The team takes a two-pronged approach to event analysis. First, they explore each client’s data with Looker Studio dashboards, reviewing ad performance and overall strategy. Second, they use a consolidated dashboard that aggregates data across their network of clients to see how a specific vertical or campaign type performed.
How do they do this? By using a naming convention in Funnel, they can benchmark the performance of different campaign types, such as “buy-one-get-one-free,” “percentage discounts” or “free shipping included” across all businesses. This granular approach allows them to pinpoint which strategies worked best and help guide their decisions for the following year.
The takeaway: Consistent data analysis before, during and after is critical to drive improvements.
Timing and data give you the edge
The clock starts ticking on BFCM strategy months before November rolls around.
The team begins planning in late August, working closely with clients to ensure their campaigns align with inventory levels, promotional offers and consumer behavior. Raphaël stressed the importance of flexibility during this time.
“We work like we’re part of the client’s internal team. If there’s a supply chain issue, we adjust. Agility is key,” he said.
The team relies heavily on accurate data to monitor performance and optimize in real time.
“Our job is to track everything – whether that’s a conversion in an online store or an offline transaction at a physical location,” Raphaël said.
For the agency, precise tracking enables them to pivot quickly and ensure clients are always spending efficiently. But driving conversions isn’t just about timing and data. It’s also about achieving the right targeting mix.
Balancing new customer acquisition with retention
One of the perennial challenges during BFCM is balancing new customer acquisition while encouraging repeat purchases.
With the cost of impressions skyrocketing during the holiday season (Raphaël mentioned CPM increased by 13% on average in BFCM 2023 compared to BFCM 2022), the team has developed a clever strategy: Ramp up awareness campaigns in September and October to get customers onto clients’ websites early.
“During Black Friday, we shift from awareness to conversion and retention. Conversion campaigns aim to turn that earlier traffic into sales, while retention campaigns focus on repeat buyers,” he said.
This dual focus on conversion and retention ensures that their clients aren’t just blowing their budgets on one-time shoppers. Instead, they’re also building long-term relationships. Achieving this balance is critical and requires measuring and tracking activity properly from the get-go.
Measure what matters
Agencies often face a critical decision: What metrics should we focus on to measure campaign success?
At mint. numérique., they avoid common pitfalls like relying too heavily on Google Analytics, which Raphaël argues is flawed due to attribution bias. Instead, they use data directly from ad platforms (like Meta and Pinterest) in conjunction with their clients’ own e-commerce platforms like Shopify to measure the marketing efficiency ratio (MER).
This ratio, which tracks total ad spend relative to revenue, is a critical metric for them. The agency doesn’t exclusively rely on return on ad spend (ROAS) to compare platforms, as their attribution windows vary from one another. Instead, it uses MER to assess whether it could boost client sales. When comparing campaigns within the same platform, however, it typically considers ROAS, customer acquisition costs, and average order value, among other metrics.
“We adjust the budget based on a client’s sales targets and make sure we don’t overspend,” Raphaël explained.
When ad costs rise, monitoring MER ensures that they are making more money than spending it. It’s also a handy metric for measuring their overall marketing effectiveness for their clients.
Use data to lead your decision-making
They don't worry too much when considering external factors that may impact their strategic approach. Instead, they focus on the data provided by their benchmark dashboard.
For instance, if they notice inflation in CPMs, a decrease in ROAS over a 12- versus 24-month period, a spike in CPC, etc., they communicate with the customer and suggest adjusting their prices or promotions due to the likelihood of higher marketing spend this year.
Managing expectations is a significant part of their job.
"It's important to gain the right insights to lead the business in a way that ensures profitability," said Raphaël.
Profitability is key, but so is customer lifetime value
At the end of the day, it’s all about staying profitable. Yet, as Raphaël points out, it’s not just about making money in November.
Raphaël shared how they focus on customer lifetime value (CLV) rather than only short-term profits.
“If the first sale during BFCM isn’t profitable, that’s okay. We know that, over time, each customer will generate more revenue for the business,” he said.
For example, if the lifetime value is $200 with a 40% margin, each customer generates $80 in profit on average over their lifetime. If their first order was breakeven (or even a bit under) in terms of profit versus acquisition cost, lifetime value should be centric to the ad spend decision and further digital performance strategies.
“If a customer’s lifetime value doesn’t align with industry standards, we explore tactics to boost retention or increase the average order value,” Raphaël said.
Using Funnel, the agency can now calculate CLV more accurately than ever before. This enables them to optimize for immediate and more extended sales – a balance that every e-commerce brand should strive for.
Don’t underestimate the value of creatives
On top of that, one thing is clear from our conversation: Creative assets can make or break a campaign.
“In November 2023, we saw a 55% increase in ROAS when we handled the creative,” Raphaël said.
The agency’s in-house design team focuses on creating innovative, eye-catching visuals that capture attention in the first three seconds, especially on social platforms.
For brands not working with an agency, Raphaël offers a word of advice: don’t skimp on creatives.
“Even if a client handles the creative in-house, we help them brainstorm ideas and set up briefs to ensure their visuals meet the necessary standards,” he said. “Because, at the end of the day, we want them to succeed – even if they decide to create their own ads.”
The verdict: Is BFCM still worth it?
With rising ad costs and shrinking margins, some businesses may wonder whether BFCM campaigns are still worth the effort. The answer for most of the agency’s clients is a resounding yes — but with careful planning and data-backed strategies.
“Year after year, clients see that BFCM generates their best month,” Raphaël said.
However, he advised that it’s crucial to get the promotion right. A lackluster offer won’t cut it, and some businesses may even choose to skip BFCM altogether if they can’t compete on price.
“Some clients back away when past years didn’t work out for them, often due to a lack of an aggressive promotion. If the promotion isn’t big enough, it’s better not to run it,” Raphaël said.
For these clients, the agency runs a “best offer” campaign in early November and turns off ads before BFCM to focus on profitability without participating in the fray. According to Raphaël, there’s always a tactic to play depending on the client’s decision to run a promotion or not.
Agility and data — the ultimate formula
One of the biggest takeaways from the conversation with Raphaël was that agility is the key to success.
Too many businesses lock themselves into rigid strategies and promotions without leaving room to pivot if inventory changes or the market shifts. In today’s dynamic retail landscape, flexibility is just as important as strategy.
At Funnel, we’ve seen firsthand how a well-executed campaign can transform a brand’s trajectory. But we’ve also seen how minor missteps (like failing to adjust your budget in real time) can lead to wasted ad spend and missed opportunities.
As we wrapped up our conversation, Raphaël left me with one key piece of advice for agencies and retailers alike: “Data-driven marketing is only as good as the data you use.”
If you’re not tracking conversions properly, you’re flying blind, which is a mistake too many businesses make.
So, as we approach BFCM 2024, it’s time to ask yourself: Are you prepared to maximize your data, creativity, and strategy to make this your best Black Friday and Cyber Monday yet? As Raphaël can attest, it’s a winning formula.